Perception and reality

In the story "The Sky is Falling," the main character, a chicken named Chicken Little, is eating when an acorn falls on her head. She believes the sky is falling and proceeds to spread that word to everyone on her way to inform the king. Others get caught up in the idea and mass hysteria abounds. In the end, reason prevails.

For many years I have been amazed and impressed with how perception can become reality. We have just finished the two major political parties' national conventions and now head into the season of perception called the campaign. Millions of dollars will be spent trying to convince us that one candidate does not have enough experience or one is too out of touch. Hours of focus group and telephone interview answers will generate TV ads that through lighting and sound bites will try to influence our vote.

Just earlier this past week, Hurricane Gustav hit land with less ferocity than had been predicted. It almost seemed to me that the national TV talking heads were disappointed and trying to make the coverage more sensational than the storm warranted. I think they longed for the nonstop coverage opportunity of another Katrina. I will be honest here and say that I think it would be funny to see one of those talking heads get knocked off their feet by some gust of wind, a limb or sign. Anyone who wants to be seen standing out in a storm like that almost deserves to be.

Locally, some have had the idea that our economy is really tanking. And, if you're one of the folks who has lost your job, I've been there, had no health insurance and know the fear that is real to you, so I'm not diminishing your situation whatsoever. But, in truth, our local economy is still strong.

Interest rates are low for borrowing. Interest rates paid on savings are low, but the stock market returns since 2004 are back trending upward toward the historical positive returns that have gone on for a hundred years. Locally, new commercial buildings are being built as are new homes.

Home sales, to me, are the very best example of supply and demand. According to the Multiple Listing information for Jackson County, and two local Realtors, for the last 12 months homes are on the market 29 days longer now. The average sale is just a little more than $3,000 less. And, as of the end of August, 80 fewer homes have been sold in the last 12 months.

Poor economy? I don't think so. I think it says three things. First, we continue to carry so much personal credit card debt that it is harder for some folks to get a loan. That's not a bad economy, just a credit report that reflects previous bad personal choices. Second, the national banking issue that hit many large banks that made really bad loans has tightened up loans even in our small towns for those with marginal to high debt. That wasn't a bad economy, just greed by the owners of large mortgage banks.  Third, we are looking for value more than ever and willing to wait longer until we find it. That leads to a sound, long-term economy.

I also believe that the recent increase in energy costs, particularly gasoline, has made us all think that times will only get worse. That's not true. We must face the fact that, going back to that supply and demand thing, there are other parts of the world that are willing to pay more to have petroleum. And so if we want it, we now must compete in a global market, and with globally driven prices. I personally believe that the ideas that T. Boone Pickens is promoting on how to get out of this foreign oil dependency mess have great value and we should be adopting them. This energy problem can end up being an opportunity in disguise.

Chicken Little thought the sky was falling and it wasn't. Political campaigns are about to besiege us with slick marketing to try and persuade us that one candidate or the other is our salvation, when our nation's strength is with and from its citizens, not one elected leader. We depend too much on the opinions of others, marketing and perceptions. We are becoming lazy and not doing the reading, research and thinking that will let us form our own opinions. We need to remember Chicken Little and not let perception become reality.
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Bill Bailey is director of the Greater Seymour Chamber of Commerce. He writes a monthly column for The Tribune.