Both promise and danger in Iraq

Violence and attacks on U.S. and Iraqi government troops and other security forces have declined dramatically over the past several months. The major questions revolve around why.

Is it due to the "surge" of 30,000 extra U.S. troops, the counterinsurgency tactics implemented by U.S. Gen. David Petraeus and those extra troops, the "Anbar Awakening" among Sunni tribal leaders that began before the surge, or anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's decision to order his militia to observe a cease-fire?

It's almost impossible to figure out which, if any, was most important. Unfortunately, we may be about to find out, and we may not like the answer.

The U.S. and Iraqi governments are on the verge of a formal agreement that would see U.S. combat troops removed from Iraqi cities by next June and from the rest of the country by 2011 - called "aspirational goals" rather than a "timetable" by the Bush administration. That's the tentative good news.

The possible bad news is that the Anbar Awakening, which began in November 2006 as Sunni tribal leaders and fighters who had aligned themselves with al-Qaida and other militant groups decided to oppose al-Qaida and ally themselves with the United States, may be on the verge of falling apart or being reversed. The United States quickly took advantage of this reversal and began working with Sunni fighters, paying many of them $300 a month. The promise was that these fighters would be incorporated into the national Iraqi military and police forces.

However, the Iraqi government is dominated by Shia Muslims, who make up some 60 percent of the Iraqi population. Since the minority Sunni ruled Iraq during Saddam Hussein's time (and for centuries before), the Shia have grievances that are unlikely to go away soon. The fighters who have turned against al-Qaida in Iraq are predominantly Sunni. Brig. Gen. David Perkins, senior military spokesman, says only 5,200 of some 100,000 Awakening militia members have been incorporated into national security forces.

Now the Iraqi government has placed 650 leaders of the Sunni militias on a list of people to be arrested for prior terrorist activities. It is considering a Nov. 1 deadline for the rest of those not absorbed into government security forces to give up their weapons or face arrest.

That could precipitate outright civil war and undo all that was accomplished during the past year. We hope the Iraqi government reconsiders.